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Recently, I was reading the Economist and came across Charles Keating's obituary. That name means little to most readers outside the US, but for me it reminded of an idea that's been percolating in my mind for quite some time now: while rich countries offer valuable lessons for microfinance regulation, those lessons alone won't be enough. You see, Charles Keating was the poster-child of the Savings & Loan Crisis during the late-1980s, which saw the collapse of many of these small banks across the US, ending an unprecedented 50-year period of stability in the US banking sector. From today's vantage point, that period is also difficult to understand. After all, it took less than 20 years to go from the S&L crisis to the much larger collapse in 2008 (don't let the graph mislead – S&Ls were typically small banks, so while the failures were many, their impact on the broader economy was far smaller). What was behind this period of stability? It wasn't the economy, which though growing nicely, still saw plenty of recessions, including some serious ones in the mid-70s and early 80s. It wasn't the Bretton Woods system, which was abandoned more than 15 years earlier. There is however, one factor that almost perfectly parallels this 50-year period: banking regulation. The banking regulations in place as late as 1980 had not changed much since the 1933 Banking Act, which itself was introduced in response to a catastrophic bank failure during the Great Depression. Banks were constrained in both the type of loans they could make and the type of deposits they could offer. The system came to be encapsulated in the so-called 3-6-3 rule of banking: borrow at 3%, lend at 6%, be at the golf course by 3pm. As all jokes go, it's a gross oversimplification, but it's also a reflection of reality. After all, such a description would make no sense at all in today's banking system. Starting in 1980, a series of laws started significantly eroding that process. These included loosening restrictions on the types of assets S&Ls could invest in. The resulting plunge into high-risk assets (real estate, junk bonds, and other mostly commercial investments) took only a few years to lead to a full-blown collapse of the industry. So how is this historical episode relevant to microfinance? On the positive side, it demonstrates that despite recent experience, banking regulation can work. Because bank runs had been eliminated by the introduction of deposit guarantees, since 1933, there was really one way for banks to fail en masse: by making bad investments. In the S&L crisis these tended towards the commercial side, but in 2008, the fault lay very much with bad loans to consumers, particularly mortgages. And bad loans to consumers hurt the borrowers as much or more than the banks. So the regulations in place during the 50-year period of stability largely meant that people also weren't being overindebted through excessive lending by banks. But there is a catch. The regulation in place at the time was highly repressive, offering little room for innovation in banking services. In the developed economy of the US, where access to finance was not a high concern, having a static banking sector was almost certainly a price worth paying in return for stability (needless to say, the economy certainly didn't suffer!). But for developing countries, where access to finance is low, that tradeoff is much less clear. Repressive regulations in such a context might bring stability, but it would also maintain a status quo where the majority of the population continue to be excluded. That means continuing use of informal services that cost more and offer less, especially with respect to security. Shady operators and scammers offering "investments" or "deposits" will continue to bilk the most vulnerable out of their hard-earned money. So where does that leave microfinance? Must we accept a volatile sector and the risk of overindebtedness as an unavoidable cost of greater financial inclusion? I don't believe so. The key lies in being able to recognize overheating markets and cool them before they crash. Over the past year, I've become convinced that this could be done with a tool like MIMOSA, which highlights markets that show signs of excessive credit and overheating. Its standardized system of scoring makes it more difficult to explain away signs of overheating, and make it easier for regulators to put in place controls to slow down the sector. And for that reason, my collaborators and I have been working hard to take MIMOSA to the next level, making it sufficiently reliable that it could become the technical guide for strategic decisions on a country's financial system. Armed with such a tool, no longer would we have to choose between stability and financial inclusion. I hope we can get there. author: Daniel Rozas

A recent article by the Economist hails a study in Bangladesh by Shahidur Khandker as "the biggest study so far finds that microcredit helps the poor after all." Within the sector, the article has been widely circulated as proof that, indeed, microfinance does work. Rupert Scofield, CEO of FINCA, found vindication that this study finally resolved the problems of earlier randomized control trial (RCT) studies, which had found that microloans had zero impact on clients: The recent short-term studies were undertaken in highly saturated markets and focused on clients who diverted some or even all of their loans into consumption. Microcredit works best when the client uses it to fund a business. But there's the danger of jumping to early conclusions. Before considering the Khandker study, it's worth addressing the way Scofield seeks to explain away the RCTs by referring to "highly saturated markets" and "clients who divert loans to consumption." First, Scofield errs by suggesting that the RCTs (assuming here he means the Banerjee/Duflo 2009 study in Hyderabad and others) were undertaken in highly saturated markets, thus implying that Bangladesh is somehow less saturated. On the contrary, Bangladesh is the most saturated market of all. Even the Khandker study repeatedly discusses widespread multiple borrowing among the surveyed households. While we all have the image of the microfinance bubble in Andhra Pradesh in 2010, it's worth remembering that at the time of Duflo's study, during 2006-08, it was significantly less saturated, probably less than Bangladesh anytime in the past decade. And Duflo's study is by no means the only one. I am sure that Scofield would not suggest that Karlan's RCT study in Manila in 2006-08 (which found much the same thing as Duflo) was conducted in a market more saturated than Bangladesh. As for the diversion of loans to consumption, is there anything in Khandker's study to suggest that the households he surveyed did NOT divert their funds to consumption? Why would we assume that these clients are any different from those in India or Philippines? I find no basis for this. Scofield does have a point about the relatively short timeframe of the RCTs, though I don't find them quite so short, given that they spanned one full loan cycle or more. So what about the Khandker study itself? Here, I must once again go to the authority, David Roodman: The article appears to commit what Dierdre McCloskey and Stephen Ziliak dub the “standard error of regressions,” which is to confuse statistical significance with real-world significance. Statistical significance, as meant here, is the certainty that the impact of microcredit is not zero. Real-world significance is whether the effect is big enough to matter. “A 10% increase in men’s borrowing raises household spending by 0.04%….Borrowing by women pushes up household spending by one and a half times as much.” Let’s see…because of compounding, seven 10% increases would about suffice to about double borrowing. So doubling female borrowing will lift household spending by 7 * 0.04% * 1.5 = 0.42%. To me, that seems small—about a sixth of the impact found in the first study of these families. Indeed, 0.42%. That's what's being hailed here as proof of success. Let's put this in perspective. Let's say you are a middle-class family earning €50,000/year. Would you want to double your debt in return for an extra €210? No, probably not. Neither would Scofield. In the two client examples he gives, we don't see a benefit of 0.42%. Both are standout clients. One has actually gone on to build a million-dollar business. They are the equivalent of those two kids you knew in high school, one of whom went on to become a successful lawyer and another a billionaire hedge fund manager. And as with the high school curricula, I doubt that FINCA's lending programs are oriented to those two success stories. No, they quite rightly aim to serve the average person, which is what microfinance should be all about. The need for quality financial services – savings, credit, insurance – is enormous. And so far, we've barely made a dent. I reject microfinance as the story of rags to riches. As financial providers, we're in no position to be selling tickets out of poverty. Rather, we should focus on providing everyday people who are excluded from the financial system with the products they need, and doing so responsibly. When some clients do extraordinarily well, we should celebrate them, not us. When others make mistakes or suffer bad luck, we should try to mitigate their situations as best we can. But above all, we should focus on those in the middle, and try to make their lives just a tad easier and help them lay the foundation for the next generation. That should be the measure of success. author: Daniel Rozas

As the microfinance industry has grown, there has been an increasing focus on the non-financial impacts that microfinance institutions (MFIs) can have. While the industry developed to tackle socio-economic issues through providing access to finance, its impressive growth led to increasing evaluation of MFIs potential social and environmental impacts. As a result, MFIs are increasingly expected to consider a broader spectrum of issues in their operations. As important organisations at the forefront of business within many emerging economies, MFIs can be important catalysts for environmentally and socially sustainable growth. Despite the small size of many MFIs, their capacity for direct impact on local environmental and social issues can be significant. However it must also be recognized that pursuing initiatives that are not 'core business' is likely to be a challenge given MFIs often-limited resources. The development of appropriate mechanisms that encourage MFIs, and more broadly, SMEs (Small & Medium Enterprises) in emerging economies to adopt improved environmental and social practices is important. In light of this, we are excited to be working with the European Microfinance Platform to develop the evaluation metrics for the upcoming European Microfinance Award: Microfinance and Environment.<1> This work has allowed us to explore the role of MFIs in positively considering and addressing environmental issues, both through direct-targeted initiatives as well as in their everyday business activities, including environmental governance and credit assessment. We have also considered the types of programs and products an MFI could develop to positively influence the environment and their bottom line. Some environmental issues in emerging economies are also business opportunities, e.g. development of business linked to providing access to safe drinking water and energy. On the flipside, a lack of capacity, poor last mile logistics and limited access to appropriate financing mechanisms are often constraints to tackling pressing environmental issues impacting local livelihoods. MFIs are well placed to facilitate solutions to these issues. There is also a growing interest amongst MFI professionals to incorporate environmental governance alongside social impacts.<2> This is understandable, given the pressing nature of environmental concerns in many emerging countries. Consideration of environmental issues within emerging market businesses can present opportunities to build a company with a license to operate that goes above and beyond the norm, resulting in strong consumer loyalty and word-of-mouth marketing. In emerging economies, access to affordable renewable energy, safe water and agricultural inputs can be particularly valuable due to a lack of infrastructure. The story about a village that had no access to electricity until it was connected to solar power has been told before, but there are other opportunities to invest in leapfrogging. Some examples include certified agricultural and forestry products, water storage systems, rainwater harvesting systems, drip irrigation, high-quality & certified agricultural inputs and solar energy. Environmental aspects should also play a key role, especially in the case of MFIs, in the assessment of credit and operational risks. Environmental events, accentuated by climate change, may create opportunities but also disrupt business activities, and their influence must be considered in business models. MFIs can play a leading role in identifying and tackling these issues, after all, it is not the first time the industry has broken new ground and fostered high impact growth. Yet, as MFIs are often small institutions, sometimes in remote areas, with limited resources and capacity, they are likely to struggle. These challenges are often somewhat erroneously used to justify why large-scale multi-national companies do not take appropriate action on environmental issues – however these difficulties may in fact pose a legitimate challenge for MFIs. Nevertheless we see this new and growing field as interesting, and one of many opportunities that can catalyze better economic growth in emerging markets. In consideration of this, the European Microfinance Award is an important opportunity for leading MFIs within this space to be showcased and rewarded, providing inspiration to other organisations and individuals around the world. We are therefore thrilled to help support and promote the European Microfinance Platform's important work, and particularly to work with them on designing this year's Award. We look forward to seeing applications from a wide variety of MFIs that demonstrate the emerging frontiers of sustainable business. Applications close on June 15th 2014. For more information please check http://www.e-mfp.eu/news-and-events/5th-european-microfinance-award. This post was originally published on Clarmondial Blog _______________________________ <1> The European Microfinance Award was launched in October 2005 by the Luxembourg Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs – Directorate for Development Cooperation and Humanitarian Affairs, to support innovative thinking in the microfinance sector. This year's edition aims to highlight opportunities for microfinance to improve environmental issues in the South and encourage the industry to find innovative solutions for global environmental concerns. <2> See for example, Green Microfinance. Characteristics of microfinance institutions involved in environmental management by Marion Allet and Marek Hudon. Available under https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/138434/1/wp13005.pdf author: Clarmondial

For years, credit was the driving force behind microfinance. But times have changed. Instead of credit, we now speak of financial inclusion and expanding access to savings stands as one of the topmost objectives for the sector. We also live in the age where it's no longer acceptable to claim success without reliable metrics to back it. And on that front, the metrics applied to savings are woefully inadequate. According to a paper recently published by e-MFP, 50-75% of the savings accounts reported by MFIs stand empty. Like shadows cast by an evening light, the majority of savings clients are but illusions that obscure the real savers. We are thus doubly tricked – led to believe that more clients are saving than is the case, and that the clients who save are poorer than they really are. This is both a problem and a symptom of a larger challenge. The problem is simply that we know surprisingly little about real savings outreach. Reporting the gross number of bank accounts and total deposits, whether for a single institution or an entire market, is a poor reflection of reality. As Elizabeth Rhyne put it succinctly: "possession of a bank account ... should not be confused with genuine inclusion." Yet that assumption lies behind most of the metrics used to report savings outreach. In 2008, the microfinance sector in Bolivia, one of the case studies in our paper, reported 1.4 million savings accounts, with an average balance of $309. Bolivia is often regarded as one of the most mature microfinance markets, and the success of its savings outreach is one of the reasons why. However, our analysis shows that after excluding empty accounts, the actual outreach drops to some 366,000 active savers, with an average balance of $1,225. Instead of reaching millions of poor savers, Bolivian MFIs are serving a substantially smaller number of individuals, many of whom probably earn more than the MFIs' traditional clients. Similar patterns show up at banks and credit unions. That's the problematic outcome of how savings outreach is currently reported. The large number of empty savings accounts is a symptom of the substantial challenges of serving poor savers. The past few months have seen a spate of publications examining the challenges – and successes – of serving poor savers. Accion recently shared findings from its affiliates that demonstrate how empty accounts reflect regional and institutional differences in microsavings. As with our findings in Bolivia and elsewhere, Accion's Latin America partners' apparently high savings outreach is a quirk of arithmetic: in half of the institutions, over 70% of accounts are dormant. This is in part because savings are considered unprofitable, while clients do not perceive MFIs as the right place to save. However, not all savings products for the poor result in high dormancy rates. By explicitly focusing on serving the needs of poor savers, Finamerica, Accion's partner in Colombia, rolled out a product whose dormancy rate of 33% is less than half of its traditional products. Examples of this abound elsewhere: Grameen Foundation's Microsavings Initiative at Cashpor, India achieved a dormancy rate of 28% compared to average dormancy rates of over 80% among financial institutions in India. Similarly at CARD Bank in the Philippines, the Grameen Foundation collaborated with the behavioral economists from ideas42 to increase transaction frequency by 73% and raise account balances by 37%. The efforts aren't limited to microfinance institutions. Working with five large commercial banks around the world, the Gateway to Financial Innovations for Savings (GAFIS) seeks to promote the development of appropriate savings products directed at low income people. Mirroring Accion's experience in Latin America, its recent report highlights that traditional low-balance accounts are not profitable. However, GAFIS identifies three patterns for savings behavior (spend down slowly, accumulate, preserve) and demonstrates how a robust agent channel with flexible products tailored to client behaviors can help increase savings activity. These efforts suggest that an explicit focus on serving savers, as opposed to raising deposits or simply opening accounts, can have a material effect on client savings activity. At the same time, it's worth recognizing that empty or even dormant savings accounts are not necessarily a problem in itself. Clients may use accounts as a means to receive payments rather than as vehicles for saving – an important financial service in its own right. In other cases, such accounts may facilitate transactions between the institution and the client. And finally, keeping inactive accounts open may help maintain a customer relationship that could be reactivated at a later time. All of these are useful and legitimate objectives, as are efforts to reduce dormancy rates. Yet, it is impossible to monitor such efforts by looking at the number of accounts and total deposits. All of the above projects included a deeper examination of both account activity and account balances, including separating out empty or dormant accounts. A similar approach should be applied more broadly. Reporting on savings, whether by MFIs, country associations, investors, and others should move to a new set of standards. As an initial recommendation, we suggest the following: * Reporting of stratified balances, including explicit separation of empty and nearly empty accounts (e.g. <$ 1 or <0.001 GNI per capita). * Reporting of accounts stratified by transaction frequency. This should include essentially inactive accounts (for example, 0 transactions over past 6 months), as well as a few levels of stratification by level of activity (<1 transaction, 1-2 transactions, 3+ transactions per month). * Reporting of number of total transactions per period, stratified by transaction size (<$10, $10-50, etc.). Such additional reporting may incur marginally higher costs and administrative burdens. However, such reporting is essential for MFIs that want to strengthen their client relationships, especially when targeting the poor or financially excluded. If we as a sector are to reach the objectives we set out for financial inclusion, we must abandon the illusory shadows of traditional savings reporting, and face the full complexity of real savings outreach. author: e-MFP

Every November, the European Microfinance Week (EMW) brings together a high-level group of decision-makers, opinion-leaders and practitioners from the microfinance industry to discuss the state of the sector and the way ahead in the coming years. This past November, the e-MFP team went one step further, and conducted a poll of attendees on the key trends affecting the sector and its level of preparedness to address them. Modeled on the survey conducted by the SEEP Network (Keeping an Edge: What Will It Take in the Current Microfinance Context), which polled leaders of 39 Microfinance Associations (MFAs) around the world, the e-MFP survey was sent to EMW delegates before and during the Week. The preliminary results were presented at the final plenary of the conference, along with the SEEP survey, thus allowing attendees to compare and contrast the results between the two perspectives, and build upon three days of discussion on the challenges and opportunities ahead. The respondents were required to rate five trends across two dimensions: TRENDSDIMENSIONS Clients’ increasingly diverse needs Emergence of new technologies Evolving profile of funding available for microfinance Changes in financial regulation Decreasing market share Relevance: Will this trend challenge MFIs’ ability to remain relevant, given their current business model and capacity level? Preparedness: How prepared are MFIs to adapt to this trend? Respondents had to rate each of the trends 1-5 in terms of relevance (not likely to very likely) and preparedness (poorly prepared to very prepared). The prime focus was looking at gaps – the differences between the challenge each trend posed to MFI ability to remain relevant on the one hand, and MFIs’ preparedness to deal with it on the other. In other words, the larger the perceived ‘gap’, the greater the challenge will be to the industry, according to the respondents. The results paint a picture of what a broad cross-section of the microfinance industry sees as the emerging trends, or to paraphrase Harvard Professor Michael Chu in the Conference’s opening session, how the industry avoids ‘being Kodak’. “We’re at the next wave of disruption” he claimed, “Microfinance was the disruption of finance; and now it will be disrupted itself”. The ‘gaps’ presented in the EMW survey perhaps foreshadow from where this disruption will come. Results The survey achieved a remarkable response rate well over 50%. As shown in figure 1, overall, respondents saw the largest gaps in diverse client needs, technology and decreasing market share. The latter also shows a clear difference from the original SEEP survey, which found no significant relevance-preparedness gap for ‘decreasing market share’. While the survey showed some variation among different types of e-MFP delegates, those who identified themselves as representing MFIs or other direct service providers reported the narrowest gap across all categories, both less concerned about the relevance of different trends and also more optimistic about MFIs' ability to meet them. [<{"type":"media","view_mode":"media_large","fid":"761","attributes":{"alt":"","class":"media-image","height":"257","style":"display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;","typeof":"foaf:image","width":"480"}}>] Within each Figure, the percentage scores are the numbers of respondents who rated the trend 3, 4 or 5 on a 1-5 scale across the five trends, in terms of its Relevance (5 being very likely), and Preparedness (5 being very prepared) Client increasingly diverse needs Clients have increased demand for a wider range of financial services, many of which are not currently provided by the majority of existing MFIs. Broken down by trend, ‘Clients’ increasingly diverse needs’ revealed a 19% gap between the relevance of the trend and MFIs' preparedness to address it. But breaking the responses down by individual score reveals yet more: only 14% rated MFIs’ preparedness as high or very high, while 60% respondents rated the trend as relevant or highly relevant (see Figure 3). [<{"type":"media","view_mode":"media_original","fid":"762","attributes":{"alt":"","class":"media-image","height":"244","style":"vertical-align: middle; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; display: block;","typeof":"foaf:image","width":"229"}}>] Broken down by respondent type, the challenge for MFIs to remain relevant to meeting client needs is relatively consistent among respondent segments. Their level of preparedness was more varied, with 57% of NGO delegates rating MFIs as slightly or poorly prepared, compared to 40% overall. Meanwhile, MFIs and other direct service providers saw the trend posing less threat to MFIs' future relevance (48%), and also least concerned about their ability to meet the challenge (28%) including the only respondents who rated MFI preparedness for this challenge as very high. [<{"type":"media","view_mode":"media_large","fid":"763","attributes":{"alt":"","class":"media-image","height":"257","style":"display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;","typeof":"foaf:image","width":"480"}}>] Emergence of new technologies New technology is affecting how products are delivered and banking is done. These include mobile payments, biometric identification devices, new IT platforms etc. With respect to ‘Emergence of new technologies’, 51% of respondents rated it likely or very likely to challenge MFIs relevance, and 22% said MFIs were prepared or very prepared to deal with it – a 29% gap. [<{"type":"media","view_mode":"media_original","fid":"764","attributes":{"alt":"","class":"media-image","height":"244","style":"margin-right: 15px;","typeof":"foaf:image","width":"229"}}>] Broken down by respondent type, Fund Managers/Investors saw the trend as likely to challenge MFIs' relevance (75%), while rating MFIs’ preparedness among the lowest (44% – see Figure 6). Meanwhile, for MFIs, the relevance-preparedness gap was essentially non-existent (3%). [<{"type":"media","view_mode":"media_large","fid":"765","attributes":{"alt":"","class":"media-image","height":"257","style":"display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;","typeof":"foaf:image","width":"480"}}>] The evolving profile of microfinance funding MFI funding sources and type of available funding are changing. Debt and equity funding still available, however generally in lower amounts for MFIs Overall, the challenge of ‘Evolving profile of microfinance funding’ produced a 28% gap between relevance and preparedness: 48% saw this trend as likely or very likely to challenge MFIs relevance, while only,20% thought MFIs are prepared or very prepared to deal with it (Figure 7). [<{"type":"media","view_mode":"media_original","fid":"766","attributes":{"alt":"","class":"media-image","height":"244","style":"display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;","typeof":"foaf:image","width":"229"}}>] Interestingly, both investors and MFIs were most concerned about shifts in funding as likely or very likely to challenge MFIs’ relevance (56%). However, investors were notably more concerned, with none rating MFIs as being highly prepared, compared to 11% of MFI respondents. Changes in financial regulation Changes in regulation and industry infrastructure are affecting how MFIs operate ‘Changes in financial regulation’ produced the smallest relevance-preparadness gap in both surveys. Nevertheless, only 2.1% in the EMW survey said MFIs were well prepared while close to half rated the trend as likely or very likely to challenge MFIs' relevance. [<{"type":"media","view_mode":"media_original","fid":"767","attributes":{"alt":"","class":"media-image","height":"244","style":"margin-right: auto; display: block; margin-left: auto;","typeof":"foaf:image","width":"229"}}>] NGOs saw regulation as the most significant trend to challenge MFIs’ relevance (see Figure 9) and were the most pessimistic about MFIs’ preparedness to deal with it. Moreover, a surprising 38% of Fund Managers/Investors rated this 5 out of 5 in terms of relevance – the highest level of concern recorded by any group in any trend category. Meanwhile, not a single DFI, Fund Manager or Support Organization respondent rated MFIs as very prepared to deal with this. [<{"type":"media","view_mode":"media_large","fid":"768","attributes":{"alt":"","class":"media-image","height":"257","style":"display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;","typeof":"foaf:image","width":"480"}}>] Decreasing Market share New entrants seeking large scale deployment are providing financial services to a rapidly increasing number of clients, making significant gains in market share The trend of ‘Decreasing market share’, defined as the competitive threat from new providers and platforms, diverged the most from the SEEP survey results – the only trend really to do so. While Microfinance Country Associations responding to the SEEP survey found a negligible 2% gap between relevance and preparedness, for EMW respondents, the gap was highest among the five trends – close to 40%. Nearly 60% of respondents rated the trend as likely or very likely to challenge MFIs’ relevance, whereas only 20% said MFIs were prepared or very prepared to deal with it. 77% of DFI respondents saw this trend as likely or very likely to challenge MFIs' relevance, and over a quarter of NGOs rated its relevance as 5 out of 5. Meanwhile, over half of NGOs and Investors said that MFIs were slightly or poorly prepared to deal with this challenge. As with other trends, MFI representatives were the least concerned, with a greater number (45%) reporting the MFIs as being prepared to deal with the trend than those who saw the trend as significant in the first place (35%). In this respect, they most closely reflected the responses of Microfinance Country Associations pooled in the SEEP survey.[<{"type":"media","view_mode":"media_original","fid":"769","attributes":{"alt":"","class":"media-image","height":"256","style":"margin-right: auto; display: block; margin-left: auto;","typeof":"foaf:image","width":"242"}}>] Conclusion Both the e-MFP and the SEEP survey seek to paint a picture of what two overlapping respondent groups (Microfinance Country Associations and EMW delegates, respectively) consider to be the key disruptive trends to microfinance, and to what extent MFIs are generally prepared to meet those trends head on. There is great value in asking these questions – especially before and during a conference that seeks to identify and prepare for these trends before they can adversely disrupt the industry. Clearly, the most challenging trends for MFIs – given the gaps between the perceived challenge to their relevance and their preparedness to address it – are the reduction of market share that comes from new market entrants (such as mobile network operators) and the diversification of client needs - away from inflexible microcredit, to a complex array of services appropriate for the particular needs of certain segments. Respondents were clear on what is coming, but less optimistic with respect to how prepared MFIs are to deal with them. Perhaps this is a pessimism that stems from lack of familiarity – relatively few respondents at EMW were practitioners themselves. Those that were, proved to be the most optimistic in terms of their own perceived preparedness. Perhaps there is reassurance to be drawn from this – they know what they're doing. Or perhaps this a real cause for concern – MFIs are complacent (even ignorant) about what needs to be done in order to adapt. After all, with the exception of changes to the funding landscape, MFIs tended to consider the trends less challenging than respondents as a whole. Perhaps the most interesting ‘gap’ the survey has revealed is not the ‘preparedness gap’ per se, but the gap between practitioners and everyone else. author: e-MFP

See part-one of the blog here. In our previous post, we addressed our first two findings: 1) over-indebtedness stems not only from aggressive microcredit policies but also from global trends of financialisation, and 2) over-indebtedness should be understood as a process of economic and social impoverishment through debt that can develop in mutual contradiction. We continue our summary with two other findings that look at the issue of local decision frameworks and juggling practices, and the ambiguous role of microcredit. 1) Local decision frameworks and juggling practices Financial illiteracy is a commonly – and wrongly – attributed a cause of over-indebtedness. This stereotype reflects profound ignorance of the complexity of local financial reasoning and decision frameworks. Our case studies highlight the subtleties of budget management and debt behaviour. Over-indebtedness is caused not by financial illiteracy but rather, is shaped by, and reinforces, pre-existing inequalities in gender, caste, ethnicity and religion. We argue that borrowers and lenders resort to specific decision frameworks – reasoning tools that are available to individuals in specific situations to appreciate risk, take financial decisions and choose among various financial tools. Decision frameworks have socio-cultural, legal and normative components and are not necessarily sophisticated or formal. They stem from social interactions and are thus embedded in individuals’ social positions, particularly in terms of class, caste, gender and ethnicity. Financial decisions serve multiple – and often conflicting – purposes, whether making ends meet, respecting social structures, positioning oneself in local social networks and hierarchies, or asserting one’s individuality. Throughout the book, we highlight specific decision frameworks which people resort to when dealing with money and debt, along with the prevalence and sophistication of ‘juggling’ practices. To keep multiple objects in the air simultaneously, a juggler must be continuously throwing and catching, which demands not only speed and dexterity, but also risk-taking. The same is true for financial practices: people combine multiple financial tools to support ongoing borrowing, repayment and reborrowing (one borrows from one place to repay elsewhere). Individuals swap roles between debtor and creditor, and even the poorest people are also likely to be creditors. Certainly, juggling debt can help substitute cheap debts for expensive ones and facilitate managing different repayment time scales imposed by lenders. But social motivations also count. Juggling practices often reflect deliberate strategies to multiply or diversify social relationships, and strengthening or weakening the burden of dependency ties. Our various case studies highlight the multiple meanings of lending and borrowing, which are constantly negotiated to serve individual purposes, while remaining inseparable from local culture and structural constraints. The subtle and complex trade-offs involved leads to a plethora of complementary and often incommensurable, non-substitutable financial practices. We also find that no pure market price can reflect relative demand and supply. Financial practices are instead regulated through a web of social institutions. The terms and conditions of debt reflect micro-politics and the history of relative statuses. Debt practices are fragmented and hierarchical, as is illustrated in this book by cases in multiple geographies and contexts, be it Dalits and lower castes in India, indigenous communities in Mexico, Hispanic migrants in the United States, lower classes in Madagascar and in France, as well as women in a range of environments. 2) Paradoxes and ambiguities of microcredit These considerations have many implications for current microfinance practices, which have become a necessary component of the economy of the poor. On the one hand, we note the poor’s considerable capacity to appropriate finance and microfinance in a variety of sometimes surprising ways. Clients do not passively consume microcredit services, but translate and interpret them according to their own frames of reference, adjusting and adapting them, and often bypassing the rules to do so. Diverting loans for so-called “social purposes” (i.e. non-income generating), which is discouraged by many MFIs, is the rule rather than the exception, as is recycling microloans into informal loans. This either takes the form of on-lending microcredit to others, or borrowing informal loans to repay microcredits. Clients often decry solidarity groups, despite the fact that they are officially praised for their effectiveness in enforcing repayments and social cohesion. And yet, in some cases groups tend to replicate and reinforce rather than abolish pre-existing social hierarchies and divisions. Manipulating and misappropriating microcredit funds is not limited to borrowers. When repayments lag in highly competitive environments, MFI staff use increasingly aggressive techniques to enforce repayments. In some cases, borrowers, who are mostly women, can become sucked into intricate spirals of debt where they have no choice but to reborrow, even if they no longer want microcredit, since this is the only way to preserve their creditworthiness. Microfinance alone is rarely the sole cause of household over-indebtedness. However, microcredit can catalyze pre-existing imbalances and accelerate declines. Conversely, when supply matches the diversity of local needs in contexts with potential for economic development, microfinance can play a positive role, as the Malagasy case study illustrates. Throughout the book, different cases highlight the tension at the core of the paradoxes and ambiguities of microcredit. Microcredit is a desirable form of credit for borrowers because it appears to be a way out of oppressive debt traps. It is a promise of an egalitarian relationship contracted outside local circles of social hierarchies. Unfortunately this hope for freedom often proves illusory. The lives of the poor are precarious. Sometimes it may take only a single unexpected shock – a health emergency, a sudden loss of income, or any one of the multitude of disasters that continuously threaten the lives of families living on the edge. And with formal social protection often non-existent or ineffective, people desperately turn to protective debt, as oppressive as it might be. The terms and conditions themselves are relatively impoverishing and any substantive equality would require extricating a household from its subordinate status in a number of cross-cutting exchange relations. Such radical changes in social relations coming from outside as well as inside the economy, are beyond individual households’ control. In other words, while microfinance may improve households’ cash flow and management, it can also lead to financial vulnerability, credit addiction and debt traps. These policies can do more harm than good, not only because of commercial aggressiveness and competition, but also because microfinance promoters lack a proper vision of local socioeconomic dynamics and financial needs. author: Solene Morvant-Roux

NpM, Platform for Inclusive Finance is a Dutch membership organisation focusing on the promotion of inclusive finance. What the member organisations have in common is their contribution to assisting the poor in getting access to finance. The report Paying Taxes to Assist the Poor? Balancing Social and Financial Interest is a result of dialogue among members of NpM and presents the joint vision of all members on microfinance and taxation. It was published as an answer to questions raised in the Dutch society and parliament regarding tax structures and microfinance. Taxing as a worldwide challenge The issue of tax avoidance has emerged as a global issue that affects both developed and developing countries alike. At present it is widely covered by the international press, addressed by supranational bodies like the OECD and UN, and given priority by the leaders of the G8 and G20 nations. A majority seems to purport that concerted action is needed to ensure fair tax outcomes in a world that is characterized by financial interconnectedness. Tax treaties are important instruments to regulate distributive tax issues. They have to prevent that taxpayers are confronted with double taxation and the Internal Revenue Departments of treaty partners with double non-taxation. The discussion primarily focuses on tax planning by multinational enterprises (MNEs) investing in developed and emerging economies. By making use of tax treaties between nation states and shifting profits from one country to another, MNEs can reduce their effective tax rates considerably and avoid paying taxes. In essence, there is nothing wrong if a company aims to optimise its tax position – for instance by avoiding double taxation – while overall still paying its fair share. A discussion emerges however when companies make use of tax treaties to avoid paying taxes. This issue of double non-taxation is even enhanced if MNEs use brass plate or letterbox companies for the sole purpose of avoiding taxation. An NpM Tax Working Group, led by Professor Harry Hummels, was formed as NpM members share a clear interest in acting responsibly, while at the same time making socially and financially sound inclusive finance investments The NpM stand towards tax practice in microfinance The main finding of the dialogue is that NpM members have agreed that they should, in principle, invest in the country where the activities take place. Second, NpM and its members hold that there is no justification for profit shifting or the deliberate structuring of companies – including the use of Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) – with the sole purpose to avoid taxation. Nevertheless, NpM acknowledges that investors may have sound reasons for investing in developing countries through SPVs set up in jurisdictions that are particularly apt for attracting and transferring capital to microfinance entities in developing countries. Recommendations NpM distinguishes between two types of recommendations: those that apply to its members and those aimed at microfinance investors in general. 1. Recommendations for NpM members Generally speaking, NpM urges its members to accept a leadership role by expressing that: they do not deliberately seek to let fiscal considerations determine their investment policies and their microfinance investments, they pay their fair share of taxation in the developing countries in which they invest, and they are accountable to their investors, their investees and society at large about their investments through microfinance holding companies and SPVs. In addition, members adopting a leadership role will stimulate the microfinance institutions – including microfinance holding companies – in which they invest to do the same and adhere to the principles above. 2. Recommendations for microfinance investors NpM calls on all microfinance investors: to adopt and disclose their policy on development and on the use of microfinance holding companies and SPVs in relation to achieving that development; to avoid investments in SPVs and microfinance holding companies that are domiciled in tax havens or other investor-friendly jurisdictions, with the sole purpose of shifting profits and avoiding taxation; and to subscribe to the three requirements for microfinance investments in developing countries and apply these requirements in the decision-making processes of the investors. NpM distinguishes: the fit for purpose requirement the responsibility requirement the disclosure requirement. Considerations for multilateral organisations NpM calls upon governments and multilateral organisations to continue their concerted efforts to stimulate an open and critical discussion on the development and implementation of a globally applicable legal and moral framework for fairness in taxation. To that extent, the requirements mentioned in the paper could provide relevant guidance. Recipients The report has also been shared with Her Majesty Queen Maxima of The Netherlands, the Dutch minister of Foreign Affairs Liliane Ploumen, CGAP, UNPRI and Tax Justice. The full report including case studies can be found and downloaded here. author: e-MFP

This is part I of a two-part blog, summarizing some of the key findings of an edited volume that has just been released (Guérin I. Morvant-Roux S. Villarreal M. (eds) (2013) Microfinance, debt and over-indebtedness: Juggling with money, London: Routledge). More details about the book can be found here. Other project publications may be found at microfinance-in-crisis.org. Although microcredit programmes have long been considered as efficient development tools, many forms of debt-induced distress such as suicide, repayment arrears or defaults have emerged in their wake. This has brought to light the problem of over-indebtedness, a topic that has been previously underexplored in academic literature. Our book explores the manifestations, scale, and economic and social implications of household over-indebtedness in areas conventionally considered as financially excluded. This book approaches debt not only as a financial transaction but also as a form of social bond, and offers a socioeconomic analysis of over-indebtedness. It also raises the question as to whether microfinance policies (which represent only a small part of households' financial practices) are part of the solution, or in fact part of the problem. Empirically, this book examines economic relations and financial practices with a particular focus on debt and over-indebtedness in a diverse set of countries around the globe, including India, Mexico, Madagascar, Kenya, Bangladesh, France and the United States. Its comparative perspective helps to highlight both disparities and strong similarities across cases. Beyond the specificity of each case study, the book makes four main arguments, which are developed in the introduction of the volume. The first two are summarized in this post, and the last two will be covered in the new post. 1) Over-indebtedness and financialisation Over-indebtedness has surged during the current financial crisis. While debt is not new in poor areas, increasing financialisation and global recession have brought new dangers. On the one hand, aspirations for a middle-class life have seen rising consumption, including by borrowing from formal and semi-formal sources. On the other hand, real incomes have been stagnant or declined, and social protection remains inadequate or entirely absent. There is no doubt that microcredit delinquency crises vividly highlight how portfolio growth has been prioritised over social outcomes and the quality of financial services provided. Nevertheless, the true origin of these crises lies somewhere deeper. These crises are only the tip of the iceberg. How can we explain the mass acceptance by the poor of a service that cannot deliver on its promises? Whether in terms of job creation or women's empowerment, the effects of microcredit are not what was expected, as evidenced by many studies available today. Yet demand for microcredit remains very strong. As shown throughout our book, microcredit responds to the need and desire to increase debt, whether to make ends meet, to climb social ladders or to free oneself from oppressive social bonds that come with informal debt. In some cases, such aspirations far exceed client incomes and creditworthiness. Cross debt (or multiple borrowing), debt rescheduling, juggling formal and informal loans, and migration may maintain an illusion of creditworthiness for some time. But sooner or later, the illusion is shattered. In other words, while some microfinance institutions take some active responsibility, our case studies show that household over-indebtedness stems not only from aggressive microcredit policies, but also from the broader context of the evolution of modern societies and economies. We present in-depth descriptions of microfinance as a social process embedded in savings and multiple debt relationships. We also analyse the social and institutional processes through which microcredit intersects with a local cultural context of neoliberal political economics. Present-day societies are facing a widening gap between needs and cash incomes, due to increasing informal labour, growing urbanization and rising aspirations and consumer needs, including among the poor. This widening gap leads to an increase in household debt and new forms of exploitation. These do not arise from face-to-face relations as is typical with capital/labour relationships, but rather arise from the growing financial sector extracting added-value from the labour sector. Microcredit practices both reflect and reinforce these conflicts. 2) How to define over-indebtedness? In this book, we do not seek to quantify over-indebtedness, but rather to understand its underlying processes. We define over-indebtedness as a process of impoverishment through debt, which significantly and continuously erodes one's assets or standard of living. However, over-indebtedness is not limited to material losses. When excessive debt results in tarnishing the debtor's social network, status and reputation, the resulting downward social mobility, extreme dependency, shame and humiliation experienced by the borrower can prove just as damaging. Social and economic impoverishment through debt can develop in mutual contradiction. Some debts demand intolerable repayment sacrifices but can ultimately allow the debtor to "get by" with a socially and/or materially improved position once the debt is paid. Given rising social aspirations, including among marginalized and vulnerable populations, and the efforts and sacrifices that some families are willing to make to improve their homes and pay for their children's education or marriages, this is probably not an unusual situation. In contrast, some debt situations may bring about impoverishment and the deterioration of living conditions simply because the person is unable to pay his/her debt. It is not the payment of the debt which is a source of sacrifice, but its non-payment, exposing debtors to the risk of seizure, expulsion, moral or physical harassment, social exclusion or extreme dependence. Rather than restricting over-indebtedness to financial and accounting matters (e.g. delayed payments, income-debt ratios, number of loans contracted), we argue that it should also be approached as a social process involving social and power relationships as well as issues of well-being, status and dignity. The social meaning of debt, which is defined here as the process by which debt sets debtors and creditors into local systems of hierarchies, may be as important as its financial criteria. The local meanings of over-indebtedness reveal the extent to which accounting definitions can depart from the realities they seek to measure. Financial issues do matter, but debtors are also very sensitive to what can be labeled as degrading debts and which relate to issues of well-being, honour, reputation, independence and dignity. In the microfinance industry, high default rates are often associated with over-indebtedness. It is now widely acknowledged that excellent repayment rates may result from pressure placed on borrowers as much as client satisfaction or well-being. Conversely, field realities indicate that late payment is not necessarily a sign of over-indebtedness. It may reflect local frameworks in which the debt is viewed as something that can be repaid in multiple ways over extended timeframes. This is consistent with common practice within the informal economy, where debt is often flexible and negotiable. Such negotiability is not financially or socially cost-free, but the fact remains that there are often no strict repayment deadlines. In some cases, defaults to MFIs may also indicate a reduced incentive to repay, whether due to increased borrowing opportunities from among competing lenders, client dissatisfaction, or willingness to punish lenders who are seen as unfair. Cross-debt may also be used as an indicator of over-indebtedness. It is true that in Northern countries, where mono-banking is more the rule than the exception, relationships with several creditors may be considered a sign of financial fragility. But cross-debt can simply mean that credit providers are offering insufficient loan amounts or unsuitable loan terms. Moreover, in the contexts studied here, cross-debt is an integral part of households' cash flow management strategies. Other common indicators have used fixed thresholds for debt service to income ratio. Static analyses using ratios at a particular point in time can offer indications, but also may mislead, as they say little about households' vulnerability and the nature of their relationship with creditors. In cases where debt is primarily a matter of networking, interpersonal skills, trust and reputation, a high outstanding debt can be indicative of a large social network and the ability to mobilize and activate it. Debt service indicators may also be misleading, as they hide what is owed to the borrowers. More often than not, even the poorest borrowers are also lenders. While households are often the primary unit of analysis, debt and over-indebtedness are clearly not gender neutral. Several chapters highlight the paradoxes women face. Many are not just fully responsible for managing their household budget, they also have no control over their income. As they are forced into financial dependency while having to make ends meet, they have no choice but to deploy a variety of strategies for saving, borrowing, lending and creating their own financial networks. Women must also choose their creditors carefully to avoid any suspicion over their 'morality'. The social control of women's debt is closely linked to the control of their bodies and sexuality. In our next post, we address two other key findings: dealing with local decision frameworks and juggling practices, and the ambiguous role of microcredit. author: Isabelle Guérin

It’s a question that comes up at nearly dinner discussion of microfinance: why are the interest rates so high, and how can poor clients afford them? So, you have the answer – interest rates are high because operating in difficult environments is costly, and because those costs have to be recouped from small loans. After a few examples (it costs the same $10 to make a $100 and a $1000 loan…), you eventually set your questioner at ease that most MFIs might not be ripping off the poor after all. But after all that, you’ve largely forgotten then main point of the question – how can the poor afford it? After reading yet another article questioning the affordability of microfinance loans, it occurred to me: microfinance clients face the same economics as the MFIs. Consider your typical market trader. She buys stock to resell. The cost of the stock, together with some fixed assets, constitutes her investment capital. What are her returns? I propose that they must be high as a matter of principle. Consider the context of her operations – security is a never ending concern, and her stock is often at risk of being stolen or damaged. Moreover, the larger the investment, the greater the risk of theft. As a risk-averse entrepreneur, she would prefer to invest only the amount needed to stock her shelves. And even if she were more willing to take risks, where would she get the capital needed to buy excess stock and afford measures sufficient to secure her investment? So, the stock she buys is small. But her sales are smaller still – how many times have you seen small vendors open up a pack of cigarettes to sell a single one at a time? The economics for her follow the same formulae as the economics for MFIs – the smaller the item, the higher the markup rate, even if in absolute terms, the amount remains affordable to her clients. The markup on those individual cigarettes must be very high indeed! Combined with the advantage of being located in the client's own neighborhood, this business model allows microentrepreneurs to compete with larger retailers that are unable to sell in such tiny quantities and still cover their costs. There are a handful of studies showing very high returns (anywhere from 50% to over 300% annually) for microentrepeneurs. However, it helps to place them in the context of microenterprise economics – as with MFIs, the smaller the enterprise, the higher the returns it requires to sustain itself. And for those entrepreneurs who succeed in growing into something larger, those returns will shrink accordingly. So next time you are asked how the poor can afford such high-priced loans, you may want to mention that returns for poor microenterpreneurs can and do far exceed those of larger retailers, as well as the seemingly high interest rates they pay on their loans. But it also helps to recall that such high returns are a sign of poverty, not a path out of it. author: Daniel Rozas

During European Microfinance Week Bart De Bruyne took the opportunity to interview Mila Bunker, MCPI (Microfinance Council of the Philippines Inc) Question: How are the population and your member MFIs affected by Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan)? Answer: In the aftermath of Typhoon Yolanda , our member-MFIs in the Visayas and other nearby provinces, their clients and staff found themselves in the middle of massive loss—in terms of lives, enterprises and properties. The magnitude of the destruction that the typhoon wrought to our members is overwhelming; they badly need assistance and extra funds in order to help their clients persevere in these very difficult times. From an operational standpoint, MFIs have no other recourse but to become “flexible” and, at the same time, be more prudent in their lending policies, procedures and activities during the period of disaster—with due consideration to the welfare and well-being of their clients. Question: What are your strategies to cope with the aftermath of the Typhoon? Answer: • Document/monitor the extent of damage (in terms of life, livelihood and property) of microfinance clients per respective areas of operation. • Ascertain the specific needs and requirements of member-MFIs, in terms of financial/logistical resources for relief and rehabilitation. • Dialogue with international partner organizations/donors/funders regarding potential areas of cooperation for purposes of disaster recovery/rehabilitation. • Post-recovery: review the capacities and readiness of member-MFIs with respect to coping and responding to disasters. • Develop a network-wide/network-level Disaster Reduction and Management Strategy, including resource mobilization for such purposes. Question: How do you think that worldwide solidarity among MFIs can be organised to cope with such natural disasters? Answer: SPTF, SEEP Network, European Microfinance Platform and other international/regional microfinance networks and organizations should start concretizing plans/blueprints on how the microfinance sector—as a global community of development practitioners—can complement efforts of international humanitarian/relief agencies and organizations, with respect to disaster relief, rehabilitation, and recovery. Needless to say, we need to participate now in the discourse on Disaster Reduction and Management, especially on the aspect of disaster preparedness. It would also be good if we can develop and forge partnerships with other multilateral development finance institutions and come up with a model on how we can efficiently and transparently facilitate the flow of financial resources in times of massive humanitarian emergencies and disasters. author: e-MFP

Interview by B. De Bruyne with E. Javoy (Planet Rating) and D. Rozas. Full disclosure: in addition to being co-author of MIMOSA, Daniel Rozas is the editor of the e-MFP blog. QUESTION: Can you explain in a few words what the new Planet Rating index MIMOSA measures? ANSWER: MIMOSA estimates how much retail credit a given country can absorb, and compares that to the actual amount of credit reported. If the amount of reported credit is significantly greater than what MIMOSA estimates as optimal amount, the market is scored as being at risk of over-capacity (e.g. scores 4 & 5, or orange & red). If it's the reverse, the market is evaluated as being under-served (scores 1 & 2, or green and light green). QUESTION: How do you think MIMOSA can change the microfinance industry? ANSWER: MIMOSA is easy to understand and simple to use. Some investors have already incorporated it into their decision-making process. However, MIMOSA is also a prototype model. We're currently seeking to launch the next stage of the project, MIMOSA 2.0, which will fill many of the gaps, including providing a tool to evaluate a country at the regional, or even city level. We believe it can become the de-facto standard instrument for evaluating market capacity, and also a key component in investment decision-making, and orientation of grant funding and technical assistance to where they're most needed (e.g. emphasis on overindebtedness prevention in some markets, and institutional development in others). QUESTION: What role do you foresee for e-MFP in the future of MIMOSA? ANSWER: I think the key value is both to communicate MIMOSA and help members learn from each other (investors, DFIs, bilateral donors, and others) on how to adopt the tool in their everyday processes. For more information on MIMOSA, Microfinance Index of Market Outreach and Saturation, visit Planet Rating. author: e-MFP

During European Microfinance Week the e-MFP Rural Outreach & Innovation Action Group gathered. Afterwards Bart De Bruyne interviewed Antonique Koning (CGAP). QUESTION: Why is small holders farmers finance a concern for CGAP? ANSWER: The largest group of poor and unbanked people are smallholder farmers, estimated at 500 million households. Thus far, the offer of financial services has not always been well adapted to small holder farmers’ needs. Often even the realities and behavior of small holder farmers, and their demand and preferences for financial services is not well known. Did you for instance know that: - Close to a fifth of Tanzanian farmers and a quarter in Mali feel trapped in farming, see no hope in farming and do not want their children to become farmers (according to 2011 study by Dalberg)? - Zambian small holder farmers (with less than 3ha), got less than 24% of their household revenue from their agricultural production (study by Thomas Jayne)? The agricultural value chain is perhaps not the only way to engage smallholders in a broader spectrum of financial services with financial institutions. QUESTION: What would you recommend that the e-MFP Rural Outreach & Innovation Action Group can contribute? ANSWER: New ways in looking into and assessing the financial needs of smallholder farmers, can generate new innovations to serve them. Successful service models can be documented and spread in the learning communities. author: e-MFP